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Ilya Kravchenko

PhD in political science, RIAC expert

Despite all the analystsassurances and the opponents’ efforts this day has come – Donald Trump has officially become the 45th US President. It is quite expected that the first days of the presidency were not easy for such an odious politician.

 

Donald Trump will certainly become one of the most hated presidents in the U.S. history. The large-scale protest campaign called Women’s March took place in almost all U.S. major cities on the second day of his presidency. By the way, the number of the event’s participants was several times larger than the number of those present at the inauguration. Why did this happen? There are several reasons. First, feminist organisations have repeatedly accused D. Trump of being an outspoken sexist. And the pre-election campaign, when the old scandalous video with Trump’s unflattering remarks against women leaked (written many years ago) adding fuel to already blazing fire. Second, the U.S. President’s personality is constantly "demonized" by mass media. That is, to organise a protest at the very moment of inauguration would mean to bring a lot of attention to your event, as the new president is constantly criticized by pop stars, and is a subject of rather harsh parodies. And if you remember that the official slogans of the Women’s March are connected not with D. Trump, but with women's rights in the most general sense, it becomes clear that the protest is nothing but the attraction of the maximum possible number of citizens to the problem of feminism in the USA. The new President commented the Women’s March in his typical manner, saying that "peaceful protests are a hallmark of our democracy", but "why didn’t these people vote?"

 

 

The main news of the early days of Trump’s presidency were signing of a decree about withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and termination of the health and patient protection program (Obamacare). In fact, Trump systematically fulfills his own pre-election promises. He has started with main political initiatives of his predecessor. One symbolizes the struggle with the internal problems in the United States; the other is related to the promotion of economic and political interests of the American people abroad.

 

It should be noted at once that all these Trump’s actions are only symbolic transition from "ineffective" policy of the previous administration to "promising" policy of the current one. In other words, we have not been presented with the concrete projects replacing the above-mentioned initiatives, noting that they are "not in the interests of the American people any more." What will be introduced instead of Obamacare? Most likely, it will be a draft law, under which the insurance companies will have fewer opportunities for excess profits, as it occurred after the adoption of the Law on public health and patient protection. Some companies increased rates by 25% hitting the middle class, but at the same time, a significant number of poor people could afford at least the minimum health insurance. So, Trump’s main task will be to find balance between the burden of taxpayers who pay for the poor people’s insurance and the desire of insurance companies to make profit. The fact that nobody in the U.S. history has managed to do it so far gives Trump additional opportunities for excuses in case of failure.

           

Trans-Pacific Partnership is a special case. Trump is constantly talking about the need to confront China in Asia-Pacific, but, as you know, one of the TTP objectives was to unite the leading economies of the region under the auspices of the United States to counterbalance China. So why does D. Trump cancel the agreement on TTP if it meets his own interests? First of all, this project is as symbolic of Barack Obama’s presidency as Obamacare. It is very important for Trump to emphasize the transition from the "White House of Barack Obama" to the "White House of Donald Trump." In contrast to the 44th President, the 45th President prefers bilateral, maximum trilateral agreements to multilateral. Also, Trump is a big supporter of the idea "the U.S. economic interests are the interests of American workers". And TTP would lead to even more free movement of cheap labor from Asia to the U.S.A. that could cause increased unemployment, which recently reached the pre-crisis level. The main thing is that Trump earned his millions thanks to the market economy and the free movement of capital. It should be always kept in mind when analyzing the news about cancellation of "unfair trade agreements".

 

 

However, in addition to high-profile, but quite expected actions of the new President on cancelling the acts and agreements of his predecessor, there was one more event, important for the US political –  Trump’s visit to Central Intelligence Agency. And this is important because there are many claims to the current President from law enforcement agencies, particularly the intelligence community. Trump has repeatedly spoken strongly against special services’ senior officers, especially in the context of information stuffing in his address during the election campaign and after the elections, until the day of the inauguration. And visiting the CIA on the day after the inauguration, Trump sent a signal to the American intelligence community – you are the pillars of the U.S. security and prosperity. And even if he has claims, they are only to chief officers but not to ordinary employees. Thus, Trump made some kind of peace and brought to an end the confrontation between the security agencies and the White House. The recognition of the Russia’s responsibility for the hacker attacks on the Democratic Party servers was the first step towards rapprochement with the intelligence community. A visit to the CIA was the second step.

 

Be that as it may, Trump’s presidency is going to be saturated by provocative and thus interesting events. Almost 31 million people watched his inauguration procession. Of course, we should not forget that, for example, the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009 was watched by about 38 million viewers, making it the second most popular ceremony after the inauguration of Ronald Reagan. But the fact that so many people watched the inauguration on TV in the age of the digital technology, which stepped far forward even in comparison to 2009, says about the close attention of American citizens to the new President and his first steps. And we, in our turn, will not stay aside and will carefully analyze the rhetoric and Trump’s actions as the U.S. President. 

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