The Thin Red Line

The Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defence that kicked off on Wednesday made a number of specific announcements regarding plans to strengthen the organization’s presence on the borders with Russia in 2017.

The decision to place four battalions of the “old” member states in Poland and the Baltic States on a rotational basis was announced back in June of this year. And now NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has finally provided information on the exact composition of these battalions:

— An 800-strong battalion stationed in Estonia, to be led by the United Kingdom. Reinforcements will be provided by Denmark and France;

— A 450-strong battalion stationed in Latvia, to be led by Canada. Additional contingents will be sent by Italy (around 140 military personnel), Albania, Poland and Slovenia;  

— A battalion stationed in Lithuania consisting of around 400 to 600 troops, to be led by Germany. Reinforcements will be provided by Belgium, Croatia, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway;  

— The headquarters of the international “regiment” will be located in Poland, along with a U.S. battalion. The 900-strong U.S. contingent will be assisted by small groups from the United Kingdom and Romania.

REUTERS/Francois Lenoir

The meeting of NATO countries defence ministers

The battalions are planned to be deployed in spring 2017. The United Kingdom will begin sending troops in May, while the United States envisions starting the process in April, although this will involve simply relocating troops from Germany. All battalions should be fully deployed in the summer.   

It is interesting that the countries which make up the battalions were not chosen at random, rather they have been selected taking into account the preferences of the host countries to a greater or lesser degree. For example, Lithuania, which works actively in the defence sector with Germany, was granted a contingent from that country. Similarly, Poland, which aspires to become the leader in the region, will welcome American troops. 

Thus, the international NATO contingent will be extremely diverse – around 4000 troops from 16 countries. Logistically, and in terms of functionality (presumably regular exercises will be held), getting such a variegated group on the same page will present an interesting challenge for the staff of the NATO structures. But it could also give them valuable experience. Meanwhile, those serving in the rotational contingencies will become familiar with the terrain. In any case, the groups are still too small from a military standpoint to be anything other than simple flagbearers. On the other hand, this is precisely why they were created. Had more significant numbers been involved – both in terms of manpower and weaponry – would be expensive and trigger a harsh reaction from Russia, which is what they seem to be trying to avoid.[i]

This can perhaps be explained by the fact that the media focuses on the “international battalion,” circumventing the so-called European Activity Set (EAS) of the United States Army, an armoured brigade consisting of 90 tanks, 90 infantry fighting vehicles (or 140, according to some sources), artillery and a large number of light armoured vehicles. The armoured brigade contains around 4700 troops, which is more than the four battalions combined (not to mention in terms of firepower). However, personnel are not formally deployed. As far as the American side is concerned, the EAS is nothing more than a set of equipment warehoused in Europe for the purposes of not having to ship it back and forth across the Atlantic. Soldiers will arrive from the United States on a rotational basis to participate in regular military exercises with the local armed forces. This is done in order to take advantage of a loophole in the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation, which prohibits the permanent placement of significant forces on the territory of new NATO member countries.

U.S. Army/Pfc. James Dutkavich

The US tank crew is maintanig M1A2 from EAS devision, September 2016, Latvia

Parts of the EAS were deployed at locations in Poland and the Baltics in September without much fanfare. Other parts will be deployed further south, in Bulgaria and Romania.[ii] A typical indicator that the Americans are in Europe for the long haul is the fact that they even went and repainted their vehicles in almost-forgotten European camouflage colours in almost-forgotten European camouflage colours (which, for understandable reasons, are not used very often) from the desert colours. 

On the whole, in its military and political planning, Russia should look at these measures as the “new norm” (or at least “normal” from the point of view of NATO) for the foreseeable future. The fact that Russia has formed new military units towards the west of the country reflects a certain understanding of this. However, this is also used by the other side to justify its actions, and “hot heads” resort to this fact in order to make more demands.    

It is difficult to say where this slow remilitarization of Europe will lead and, indeed, when it will end. What we can say with certainty is that, just like decades ago, it depends exclusively on relations between Washington and Moscow. The main difference is that the opposition front has moved over 1000 kilometres towards the east, which has the potential to make the situation even more strained.