The Devolution Revolution

The global fervour surrounding the referendum in Scotland has blown over. Scotland will remain a part of the United Kingdom and the foreign policy consequences of its possible independence will not materialize. However, the outcome of the referendum may change the fate of the country and have an impact on the United Kingdom’s foreign policy.

The global fervour surrounding the referendum in Scotland has blown over. Scotland will remain a part of the United Kingdom and the foreign policy consequences of its possible independence will not materialize. However, the outcome of the referendum may change the fate of the country and have an impact on the United Kingdom’s foreign policy.

Much Ado About Nothing?

The agreement between London and Edinburgh on the referendum was reached fairly easily: over several years the share of the adherents of independence has hovered around one-third. However, the upsurge in pro-independence activities put observers on the alert and made London and other world capitals think hard about its consequences [1]. In the run-up to the independence referendum, the gap between the two camps narrowed noticeably. And ten days ahead of the vote, the pro-independence voters outnumbered those who wanted Scotland to stay within the United Kingdom [2]. The three leading British parties formed the Better Together movement, but the “yes” campaigners pointed out that the implied real slogan was “You are nothing without us” because the arguments of the pro-unity campaign boiled down to highlighting the problems Scotland would face in the event of independence. Faced with the real possibility of the breakup of the United Kingdom, the Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders launched a vigorous pro-unity campaign in Scotland, proposing their versions of broadening the powers of the regional parliament on tax and social spending issues if Scotland were to remain within the United Kingdom. David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg even signed “a vow” to that effect [3]. The results of the referendum are known: 55 per cent voted “no” to independence (versus 45 per cent of “yes” votes) with a record turnout of 85 per cent [4]. The Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond announced his resignation, public opinion in Scotland was split, while the country heaved a sigh of relief.

The tension preceding the poll was highlighted by David Cameron’s rash remarks after the referendum: he promised to sue the pollsters whose predictions of victory for the “yes” campaign gave him ulcers and he promised to apologize to Her Majesty for saying that she had “purred” upon learning the results of the poll. (1, 2)

However, the biggest gaffe occurred in the post-referendum speech when the Prime Minister said that the broadening of Scotland’s powers would go “in step” with the devolution of powers to other regions: England, Wales and Northern Ireland [5]. The Prime Minister was promptly corrected by his colleagues at 10 Downing Street, who pointed out that the two processes were independent of each other.

Unlike “ethnic nationalism” (preached by the UK Independence Party, which appeals to the white Englishmen’s dislike of multiculturalism and the European Union), Alex Salmond’s “civic nationalism” attracted to the Scottish National Party some “Asian Scots” (Asians who have settled in Scotland) and Euro-optimists who prefer an alliance with the European Union to one with England and Wales. The problem lies not in the infringement on the rights of Scots or the demand to redistribute state resources or regional powers, but the erosion of national identity (of “Britishness”). The genie of devolution all over the country has been let out of the bottle.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The referendum is over. Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom. Northern Sea oil revenues will continue to flow to London, Britain’s nuclear weapons (submarines with nuclear warheads) will still be based in Scotland. However, the referendum has accelerated the processes that will have an impact on both the country’s domestic and foreign policy.

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First of all, the Scottish parliament will have greater rights: the three leading parties, as promised during the Better Together campaign, will have to agree their positions on taxation, the rights to spend budgetary money and determine the region’s social policies. The parties have serious differences: for example, the Conservatives have proposed that the Scottish parliament should set the income tax rates itself, while Labour wants them to be set at 15 pence per pound. Reconciliation is to be brokered by the Lord Smith Commission that will work with five Scottish parties (Conservative, Nationalist, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green). The Commission has been given until January 2015 to develop and publish a bill to be put to the vote after the general parliamentary elections of 2015.

Let us note that the ruling SNP has shifted to the left of Labour in demanding “a fairer society” and there is a sense that, if allowed to influence the income tax rate, the Scottish parliament is likely to raise taxes in the region – which would run counter to the policy of the central government (if the Conservatives stay in power).

Is English Nationalism Back?

Even more importantly, after the referendum, demands have been voiced for a new balance between the centre (London) and the regions (Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales). As devolution expanded the rights of the regions, English nationalism was revived because the country is divided into nine administrative districts and has no legislature that wields the kind of powers that the regions have. The West Lothian question (an imbalance in the rights of Westminster MPs) resurfaced [6]: the Scottish MPs in the British parliament have the right to vote on regional England issues, whereas the English members of parliament have no right to vote on the issues devolved to the Scottish parliament (for example, on healthcare and education). The Cameron coalition government set up the McKay Commission that published a report in the spring of 2013 recommending that the national parliament should pass laws concerning England as a region only if the majority of English MPs vote for it [7].

Considering that the positions of the Conservatives in Scotland and Labour in England are weak, the powers of the central government in dealing with regional issues are put into question. Within the Conservative Party there have been suggestions that if the powers of the Scottish parliament are increased, the powers of Scottish MPs in Westminster (mainly Labour, with 41 MPs, 11 Liberal Democrats and one Tory out of 59 seats) should be curtailed [8]. For instance, they should not have the right to vote on laws concerning England (where the Tories are strong, with 297 MPs, versus Labour’s 191) [9].

The idea is strongly opposed by Labour, which fears a shrinking of the central government’s powers if it wins the general election. In that situation there may appear two classes of MPs: hypothetically, after winning the national election and forming a national government, Labour would be able to make decisions on major foreign policy issues. But it would be unable to get their budget through parliament – without the approval of the majority of English MPs, they would find themselves in power, while at the same time being unable to exercise it. They propose calling a constitutional assembly after the 2015 elections to discuss a reform of the House of Lords, the powers of local government bodies and the written constitution. The former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who actively backed the Better Together campaign, believes that Scottish MPs should have a say in solving the issue of devolution for England [10].

Nevertheless, on 22 September 2014, Prime Minister Cameron met with Tory backbenchers at his country residence to discuss the “English votes for English laws” proposal (the essence of the West Lothian issue). The backbenchers threaten to wreck the vote on devolution for Scotland unless England gets broader rights. Their position is: devolution for both Scotland and England or nothing. Many Conservatives feel that the leaders of the main parties, desperate to save the country’s unity, have promised Scotland too much. Former Foreign Minister and current Leader of the House of Commons, Conservative William Hague is to present the plan for reform.

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Differences between the Conservatives and Labour over “English devolution” erupted in mid-October when Gordon Brown and William Hague clashed during a parliamentary debate [11]. Labour is boycotting the Hague Commission and the “English votes for English laws” idea because the majority of English MPs are Tories. Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, the junior partner in the coalition government, is leaning towards the Tory position and believes that big cities should be given broader rights, including the right to elect their mayors [12]. Big cities have also declared their position: the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, thinks that cities should control their property tax. As early as May 2014, eight of the UK’s biggest cities besides London (Manchester, Glasgow, Liverpool, etc.) called for greater “devolution for cities, not Scottish independence.” [13] However, in 2012, nine major cities voted against the election of mayors (only Bristol voted “for”) [14].

The leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage declared that it was time to stop the Scottish wagging the Westminster dog. He called on Scottish MPs elected to the national parliament to sign a written vow not to take part in debates and abstain from voting on laws concerning England pending the solution of the “West Lothian question”, the Constitutional Convention for a plan for the United Kingdom that would provide a fair solution for the 86 per cent of Britons who live in England [15]. In his opinion, the Barnett formula under which government budget money is redistributed among regions should be revised, the boundaries of electoral districts in Scotland should be revised to bring the number of voters closer to that in English constituencies, a Constitutional Convention for the federalization of the United Kingdom should be called and English MPs should devote several days a week to legislation for England.

The Unionists in Northern Ireland think the national assembly has enough powers, but Sinn Fein wants more powers for the national assembly in matters of taxation and budget expenditure.

In Wales the First Minister, Carwyn Jones, demanded the right to take part in any devolution debates, and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood believes that Wales should be given more powers if Scotland’s powers are broadened, so that Wales should not be treated as a ”second-rate” region [16].

2015 Elections: Agenda and Political Alignments Shift

As a rule, in general elections, the British voter casts his vote on the basis of his perception of the state of the country’s economy and the ability of a party to improve it. However, the referendum has shuffled the cards.

Another consequence of the referendum is the growing number of parties coming out for Scotland’s independence. The SNP became the third largest party in the United Kingdom, overtaking the Liberal Democrats with 42,000 members compared to 25,642 before the referendum. Meanwhile, the Greens have more than doubled from 2000 to 5000 members [17]. The SNP and the Greens note that their ranks have mainly grown due to Labour joining them, which changes the political balance in the region.

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David McCrone:
Understanding the Scottish Referendum

It is not only about Scotland: Labour is thinking of setting up a branch in England similar to those in Scotland and Wales so that the party in England can have its own leadership, MPs and a special programme for the country. We should also note that the Scottish referendum was remonstrative in nature, with Labour voters joining UKIP as an anti-establishment party. Therefore, in the 2015 elections, Labour may decide to campaign as a party “rebelling against the establishment.”

The Conservatives will also have to reckon with Nigel Farage’s party – not only on the foreign policy issue of relations with the European Union, but also on the issue of “English devolution”. UKIP is steadily increasing its representation not on both the European and domestic policy arenas. It makes up a third of the country’s members of the European Parliament, having scored an unprecedented success in the 2014 elections owing to its strong Euro-scepticism and campaigning for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. However, until recently it had no MPs in the national parliament because of the majoritarian electoral system, but it is firmly in third place in British ratings after the Tories and Labour and ahead of the Lib Dems. The party made a surge on 9 October 2014 by winning by-elections for the national parliament. The first UKIP MP became Douglas Carswell who defected from the Conservative party to UKIP in August 2014, thus causing a by-election to be held.

The Conservative Party fears competition from the UKIP in the 2015 election and is shaping its policy looking over its shoulder at Nigel Farage’s party, especially since Carswell is not the only “defector”. Experts believe that UKIP can grab 100 Tory seats (polls show that Farage’s party has strong support in southern England, which would enable it to overcome the barriers set by the majority system) [18].

Thus, thanks to UKIP, Labour may gain a relative majority in parliament, that is, Britain may again get a “hung parliament” and a coalition government, probably a minority government. Still, it is still too soon to speculate on the topic. Practice shows that opinion polls only begin to reflect the real political balance of forces six months ahead of the elections, that is, from December 2014 this time around.

Undoubtedly, in May 2015, people will vote proceeding not only from the parties’ position on the vital issue of the country’s economic situation, but also on devolution for all the country’s regions.

The most obvious foreign policy consequences lie in the fact that the future government will have to bear in mind that 45 per cent of Scots (pro-independence) are against nuclear weapons being based in Scotland, that Scots in general favour UK membership in the EU and their opinion cannot be ignored even if they are in the minority.

Britain is confronted with the explosive issue of reforming its state system, a massive regrouping of political forces less than a year ahead of the general election.

The pro-independence supporters have lost, but the issues of the country’s future have risen to their full height.

1. See: Ananyeva, Ye.V. “The Scottish Independence Referendum: A Nestled Doll.” URL: /inner/?id_4=3927#top (in Russian).

2. “Yes” campaign lead at 2 in Scottish Referendum. URL: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/; Poll on Scottish Independence. URL: http://tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNSUK_SOM2014Sep9_DataTables.pdf.

3. David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg Sign Joint Historic Promise which Guarantees More Devolved Powers for Scotland and Protection of NHS if We Vote No // : http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-ed-miliband-nick-4265992

4. Results in Detail. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/results. Let us leave aside the shortcomings in the conduct of the referendum fraught with abuses: voting by post was allowed, the ballots were numbered (a threat to the secret voting principle); to be issued a ballot it was enough to produce an invitation to vote, but no identity papers.

5. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29327973

6. West Lothian was a constituency in Scotland one of whose deputies in 1977 raised the issue of unequal powers of English and Scottish members of parliament in connection with devolution. See: Report of the Commission on the Consequences of Devolution for the House of Commons / The McKey Commission. March 2013. URL: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130403030652 / http://tmc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/The-McKay-Commission_Main-Report_25-March-20131.pdf

7. Report of the Commission on the Consequences of Devolution for the House of Commons (The Mckay Commission). March 2013. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130403030652/; http://tmc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/The-McKay-Commission_Main-Report_25-March-20131.pdf

8. Since the times of Margaret Thatcher, who pursued a policy of deindustrialization and introduced a poll tax (first in Scotland and then all over the country), the Conservatives have lost ground in the region. There is only one Tory representative for Scotland in Westminster.

9. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/scottish-referendum-how-did-labour-manage-to-end-up-on-the-losing-side-9745185.html

10. BBC News. Brown Calls for Three “Guarantees” for Scotland. 15 September 2014. Last updated at 15:56 GMT http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29203695

11. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29606220

12. Decentralisation Decade: A Plan for Economic Prosperity, Public Service Transformation and Democratic Renewal in England / IPPR. URL: http://www.ippr.org/publications/decentralisation-decade

13. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29282145; http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/614901-cities-call-for-greater-devolution.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NorthWest_9th_May_2014_-_Daily_E-mail

14. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29292721

15. URL: htttp://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/512954/Scottish-MPs-fury-at-Farage-demand; http://www.ukip.org/nigel_farage_a_voice_for_england

16. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29292721

17. Scottish Referendum: “Yes” Parties See Surge in Members. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29311147

18. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukip-could-win-over-100-seats-experts-004136428.html#OSPImwo