The Communist Vietnam: Internal contradictions and the path to progress

Vietnam celebrates the 70th anniversary of independence in 2015. The Communist Party of Vietnam has held power throughout all of those decades. What are the Communist Party's positions right now? How is the Party adapting to the changing international environment, and will it be able to implement reforms the country and the Party itself need? We posed these and other questions to Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales (Australia).

Interview

Vietnam celebrates the 70th anniversary of independence in 2015. The Communist Party of Vietnam has held power throughout all of those decades. What are the Communist Party's positions right now? How is the Party adapting to the changing international environment, and will it be able to implement reforms the country and the Party itself need? We posed these and other questions to Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales (Australia).

How would you assess the state of the CPV on the eve of the country’s 70th independence anniversary? Does the party still enjoy vast public support?

The Vietnam Communist Party is undergoing unprecedented internal changes. Over the last several years the Central Committee has asserted itself as the party’s chief executive organ between national party congresses that are held every five years. The Central Committee has on several occasions overturned decisions of the Politburo and initiatives by the party Secretary General.

Vietnam is at the mid-point between national party congresses (the 11th national congress was held in 2011), and normal political jockeying has broken out among the top leaders to shape the selection process of the new leadership to be elected in early 2016, if all goes to plan

The recent oil rig crisis with China (May 2-July 15) has exposed divisions within the Politburo that will be difficult to overcome. At the heart of the matter is Vietnam’s relations with China. To the conservative faction ideological affinity to China still plays a role. Other members of the leadership feel that Chian can no longer be trusted. There are calls within the inner circle and beyond to “thóat Trung” or break out of China’s orbit.

While it is difficult to gauge popular sentiment in Vietnam, the Vietnam Communist Party still holds legitimacy because there is no alternative on the horizon. The public is angered about widespread corruption. But important members of the public are incensed over the regime’s handling of relations with China. This group, mainly urban intelligentsia and including members of the party with long years of experience, wants to end economic dependency on China and more actively integrate with the global community, including the United States. These views were recently expressed in a petition by 61 party members and former state cadres. Among other things they called for jettisoning socialist ideology.

Carlyle Thayer

Do intra-Party discussions in the CPV serve as a viable substitute for de-monopolization of power in Vietnam? Is it enough?

Over the last several decades the Vietnam Communist Party has launched repeated efforts to reform itself by exposing decadent and corrupt cadres. But these efforts have only touched the surface. The party-state has attempted to use information technology to make the government more transparent and to solicit views from citizens. Government ministers have gone live on-line to answer questions from the public.

These positive steps are undermined by the regime’s constant to legislate more controls over the Internet and to repress bloggers and journalist who use the internet to express ideas censored from official publications.

The VCP has undertaken steps to directly elect party and state officials. This has resulted in a more active National Assembly that was given the right to conduct Vietnam’s first vote of confidence for government officials holding ministerial rank or equivalent. No minister fell below a fifty percent approval rating, however.

The party Secretary General has attempted to step up the fight against corruption by identify 16 or so high profile case. However the government’s anti-corruption committee has been stymied.

Internal party discussions have led to a greater decentralization of power especially to province level. But society at large has not been drawn in. The VCP still monopolizes power but the focus has shifted from the center to the local levels.

Is the pace of reforms changing in Vietnam? To what extent do you expect the Party to go in liberalizing the economy?

If one steps back and takes a forty year view, internal party debate and discussion has served to push Vietnam in the direction of economic and political reform. The decision in 1986 to renovate (doi moi) Vietnam’s economy made greater progress than is in evidence today. The early steps, such as ending central planning were comparatively easier than later steps, such as the equitization of state-owned enterprise. There is forward momentum for economic and political reform but the devil is in the details. Entrenched interests resist change.

If President Obama succeeds in getting Japan to make concessions and the U.S. Congress to approve the Trans-Pacific Partnership, there is hope that TPP membership will exert pressure on Vietnam to conduct further economic reforms.

What is the current approach to political reform in Vietnam? Is it seen as a distant but inevitable reality?

Vietnam’s approach to political reform is designed to keep the VCP in power and prevent Vietnam from becoming a pluralist multi-party political system. Economic reform is viewed as inevitable. That is why Vietnam has participated in the TPP negotiations. It wants access to markets comprising at least 40 percent of world GDP?

Vietnam is also willing to reform its handling of human rights and religious freedom. But reforms in this sector are piecemeal, subject to set backs and yield only mixed results.

An important segment of the VCP views political reform as inevitable. But the majority cannot disentangle their personal and family interests from the one party state. They will support only gradual political reform and cautious initiatives.

Political reform is taking place gradually within the VCP. Party delegates to national party congress are insisting on a greater say in decision-making and a real choice in the selection of the party’s top leadership. There are now nominations from the floor of congress that add additional nominees to the list of –pre-approved candidates.

Central Committee members have become more assertive in demanding accountability from the Politburo. Since a hefty block on the Central Committee is composed of provincial representatives this may mean in future that popular sentiment is taken into account more than it is at present.

Finally, the ultimate goal of political reform in Vietnam is to make it a “law governed state” and make the party and its individual members subject to the rule of law. The prime vehicle for this is the National Assembly. Just over 90 percent of its deputies are members of the VCP. While many are members of the Central Committee, the majority are not. This is another circle of elites within Vietnam’s political system. But to make the implementation of law effective, Vietnam must also create autonomous and independent bodies such as a neutral police force, an independent prosecution service, an independent judiciary, and an untethered press. All of this will take time. Reform will come but only gradually.

Interviewed by Anton Tsvetov, RIAC manager