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Yuri Barmin

Analyst on Russia and its Middle East policy, MPhil International Relations, University of Cambridge, RIAC expert

The presence of Russian military specialists in Syria, previously quite obvious, has surprisingly made headlines of the world media in recent weeks. Many discovered the existence of what some mistakenly called a “Russian military base” in Syria’s Tartus and the presence of Russian military advisors in Damascus. But general reporting suggests that Russian troops and military equipment have flooded Syria and that Moscow is propping up Assad by engaging in fighting.

The presence of Russian military specialists in Syria, previously quite obvious, has surprisingly made headlines of the world media in recent weeks. Many discovered the existence of what some mistakenly called a “Russian military base” in Syria’s Tartus and the presence of Russian military advisors in Damascus. But general reporting suggests that Russian troops and military equipment have flooded Syria and that Moscow is propping up Assad by engaging in fighting.

While it is true that Russia’s presence in Syria has become more visible lately it would be a mistake to call it an “intervention.” Russian cargo planes and ships have continuously traveled to Syria throughout the conflict delivering both humanitarian aid and arms. In fact the intensification of Moscow’s aid to Bashar Al Assad began in 2014 when Russian navy’s Syria-bound ships began passing through the Bosphorus more and more often.

According to some intelligence Russians were allowed to use the Latakia air base where they started assembling prefabricated accommodation for 1,000 military personnel and have set up an air traffic control unit. The Alawite stronghold of Latakia has recently been rocked by explosions causing fears that it may soon fall to the rebels. Local residents have also displayed discontent with Bashar Al Assad over a massive death toll in the Alawite community. Locals mounted criticism against Assad in August, some of whom took to the streets to protest. With Assad losing his image of the guarantor of security in Latakia expansion of Russia’s military presence northward beyond Tartus may be aimed at assuaging some of those fears.

While there are reports that cite anonymous sources claiming that Russian troops are taking part in fighting, Moscow insists that its specialists are on the ground with the sole purpose of training the Syrian Arab Army and will not engage with the rebels. Western-backed rebels who slowly advance in the province of Latakia and may soon close in on the city will be deterred from attacking the Russians who serve as a kind of a “live” shield protecting Latakia. Any shots fired at the Russian will provoke a response, so there is no doubt rebels have been warned against any careless engagement with the Russian military.

If that was the calculation made in Moscow it would make sense for Russia to deploy more specialists in Latakia, not just at the air base but in the city as well. In this regard the noise surrounding Russian military presence in Latakia plays well into Moscow’s hand because it creates an image of a powerful Russian force in the area.

Judging by the reports that appeared in the media Russia has additionally deployed hundreds of military specialists and a batch of APCs in Syria, yet they are unable to change the status quo on the ground. It could, however, be another way for Moscow to remain in the centre of the negotiating process over Syria. While the White House is still struggling to interpret Vladimir Putin’s recent moves, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for direct talks on Syria to avoid “unintended incidents.”

What Russia hopes to achieve here is at least some level of coordination with the US-led coalition in Syria. This would establish another channel of communication while the negotiating process is still ongoing. If a certain level of coordination between Moscow and Washington is reached, it would not be surprising if Russia tried to establish a broader coalition that would involve the Syrian government and Iran, something that Moscow has been advocating for a long time. In fact the Russian-controlled base could be used by the coalition to launch air strikes against the Islamic State if a breakthrough in negotiations is reached.

The timing of Russia increasing its arms deliveries to Syria is also very telling. It comes ahead of the United Nations General Assembly session later this month where Vladimir Putin will make a speech on September 28, 2015. It is expected that the Russian President will propose a new Syria plan at the UN and hold a number of meetings on the sidelines of the General Assembly. Current escalation in Syria is probably intentional to create a sense of urgency that may play into Vladimir Putin’s hand.

Russia is looking to accelerate the negotiations that have been ongoing for over a year and have not come to fruition so far. Moscow understands that Assad’s power is waning and he has suffered some serious losses recently, so the rush and bold moves are easily explainable in this case. Russia’s primary interest at this point is not saving Bashar Al Assad but securing itself a spot in the formation of the new government.

All in all, the increase in Russia’s involvement in Syria appears to be less dramatic as it is being portrayed by the media. At this point direct involvement in this conflict is off the table for the Kremlin, primarily because the contingent Russia deployed in Syria is not strong enough for this role. Besides after Ukraine Moscow is not entirely sure what the political repercussions of its involvement would be. But depending on the outcome of the UN General Assembly and how Vladimir Putin’s agenda is perceived we may in fact witness a de-escalation in October 2015.

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