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The report provides a comprehensive analysis of current events in the Arab world. A number of experts believe that the changes we are seeing today are only the first stage in the region’s systemic transformation that will last decades. On the one hand, it predefines important features of the current situation such as the inherent uncertainty, changeability, and volatility. As a result both external and regional players struggle to predict the future course of events. On the other hand, while this instability remains, and for as long the results of this “tectonic shift” remain unknown, external players can to some extent influence the events, forecast them and sometimes direct them to the right track.

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of current events in the Arab world.

A number of experts believe that the changes we are seeing today are only the first stage in the region’s systemic transformation that will last decades. On the one hand, it predefines important features of the current situation such as the inherent uncertainty, changeability, and volatility. As a result, both external and regional players struggle to predict the future course of events. On the other hand, while this instability remains, and for as long the results of this “tectonic shift” remain unknown, external players can to some extent influence the events, forecast them and sometimes direct them to the right track.

The report was drawn up as part of the “Middle East: Political Dynamics and Russia’s Interests” project organized by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).

Authors:

V.V. Naumkin (Lead Author), Corresponding Member, RAS, Dr. of History; A.G. Aksenenok, Ph.D. in Law; I.D. Zvyagelskaya, Dr. of History; T.A. Karasova, Ph.D. in History; V.A. Kuznetsov, Ph.D. in History; V.V. Popov, Ph.D. in History; M.A Sapronova, Dr. of History; P.V. Stegny, Dr. of History; A.O. Filonik, Ph.D. in Economics; P.V. Shlykov, Ph.D. in History

Russia and the Greater Middle East., PDF, 553 Кb

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