Trump plans to increase the U.S. nuclear potential and doubts the New START's usefulness. How should Russia react?

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Foreign Affairs: Analysis

09 march 2017

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: At the Crossroads of Foreign Policy Interests

Sergey Markedonov PhD in History, Associate Professor, Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy, Russian State University for the Humanities, RIAC Expert

  16

The conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh was one of the first of its kind in the former USSR. Over the past quarter of a century, it has transformed from an intercommunal and inter-republic conflict within a single state (the USSR) into a protracted confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the prospects for resolution being unclear. Russia (the successor to the USSR) has expressed an interest in settling this confrontation, as have neighbouring Turkey and Iran, and a number of external actors, namely the United States and the European Union.

07 march 2017

Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: The EU and NATO are the Cornerstones of Polish Security

  0

On February 2–3, 2017, Russian International Affairs Council in cooperation with the EU Delegation to the Russian Federation held a seminar "The Relationship between the EU, Russia and the US.” Ernest Wyciszkiewicz, Director of the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding (CPRDiP) shares his views on recent political developments in Poland, the deployment of NATO troops and the expectations of Trump’s policy in Poland.

06 march 2017

Beware of What You Wish for: the Unconsidered EU Consensus on Russia

Nicolas de Pedro Research Fellow, Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)

  4

The rift between Brussels and Moscow is deep. The Ukrainian war, the subsequent EU sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions have dragged the bilateral relationship to its lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Strategic distrust and a clash of perceptions are pervasive. From an EU perspective, the core problem lies in Russia’s relationship with its immediate neighbors to its West. For many in the Kremlin, the EU — although ailing — has become a threatening power expanding to the Russian borders. The very rules of the geopolitical game are in dispute.

03 march 2017

Trump’s Philosophy of Economics

Pavel Kanevsky PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Sociology of Political Processes, Faculty of Sociology, MSU

  15

Donald Trump's election victory was welcomed with enthusiasm in Russia: many people await a reset in Russia-U.S. relations due to the new President’s personality and his commitment to act like a businessman in the system of international relations. Nevertheless, one should ask to what extent the economic realism of the new President might help not so much Russia-U.S. relations, as Russia’s long-term development.

02 march 2017

From Post-Modernism to Neo-Modernism

Andrey Kortunov Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, RIAC member

  53

The need to admit the fact that the agenda of post-modernism is considered exhausted not only by the fringes of society but also by the middle class and even a large part of the global intellectual elite. Foreign-policy post-modernism has degenerated into a trivial desire to keep the status quo, and this alone made it doomed. Even if the supporters of the European Union had won in the UK referendum and Donald Trump had been defeated by Hillary Clinton, these circumstances could only have delayed, but not prevented, the end of the era of post-modernism. Even if the advance of neo-modernism is stanched on one front, and if the post-modernist underground partly succeeds in undermining it from inside, the world will never go back to the golden age of post-modernism.

01 march 2017

Nuclear Divergence or Convergence? The Logic of Piecemeal Escalation or Piecemeal Integration

Ira Straus Ph.D., Chairman, Center for War/Peace Studies in New York

  2

How to achieve mutual U.S. – Russia reductions without reducing the margin of superiority over China and others? The problem is, on the surface, intractable. It seems that the equation has no solution. Nevertheless there is a solution. It is not obvious, nor easy on the psyche. It requires changing some of the parameters and variables of the equation; and taking the risk of an effort of innovation. The solution is to invest the excess nuclear forces into a joint force.

28 february 2017

Advance or Contain? How to Respond to the Escalation in Donbass

Ivan Timofeev PhD in Political Science, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club

  12

The current surge of violence in the Donbass conflict zone was expected, but its intensity came as an unpleasant surprise for many, with military and civilian deaths at a level not seen since 2015. The Ukrainian authorities are seeking to exploit this opportune moment to carry out a sweeping political maneuver in relations with the West and Russia. What might the escalation lead to and what is to be expected from the key players?

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