RIAC digest

Iran before and after the Nuclear Deal

After ten years of arduous negotiations the Nuclear Deal with Iran is finally signed in Vienna on 14 July 2015. The nuclear threat is temporarily curbed, sanctions are lifted - Iran reemerged as a new regional power center in the Middle East. Is Iran Nuclear Deal a Breakthrough or a Historic Mistake? This RIAC digest aims to cover the comprehensive diversity of materials on the topic and provide the general overview as well as detailed analysis of Iran's new role in the regional and global balance of power.
The Iran's Nuclear Deal -
a Breakthrough or a Historic Mistake?

To warm up your interest in the topic and get the general impression of it we offer you a visual and balanced view of the Deal, supported by figures, photos, graphs and quotations you can find in this comprehensive info graphics covering all aspects of this pivotal moment in the history of Iran, the Middle East and the whole world, including nuclear tests data, key personalities and impact on oil markets.

Next, the report from Brookings Institution will help you plunge into the issue and will give you food for thought. Robert Einhorn provides a list of Six Battleground Issues of the Deal that are likely to ease your enthusiasm about the non-nuclear and peaceful future of Iran. If you are still optimistic, we suggest you read the op-ed "If the Iran Deal's So Good, Why Do the Iranians Love It?" by Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi
Iran's economy: under sanctions and after sanctions

One of the major items in the JCPOA is that crippling economic and financial sanctions to which Iran was subject for ten years will be lifted in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear capabilities. But the consequences of these sanctions relief may well be more far-reaching than simply economic growth in Iran. Everything you should know about the US, the UN, and the EU sanctions against Iran, answers to all "Why's" and "When's", as well as some essential basic facts can be found in this CFR Backgrounder.

Most urgent economic issue related to sanctions relief is Iran's entering global oil market that will inevitably affect oil prices and, subsequently, countries dependent on oil exports, such as Venezuela and Russia, will continue to be battered. Iran contributes to sinking oil prices, but is likely to suffer from it as well. Learn more about the ramifications from this Stratfor video and Stratfor analysis.
Iran entering the international arena
Moving from economic to political and international issues, we offer you a series of 6 papers by RAND Corporation with perspectives on the Iranian Deal concerning a variety of aspects from non-proliferation and the role of the US to regional framework between Iran and its immediate neighbors. For more detailed picture get a closer look at the materials suggested below.
Regional Dimension
Isolated for over a decade, Iran managed to engage in regional affairs even as a rogue state. What will its actions in the region be like when it regains its economic and political power? A bulk of burning issues is highlighted in this compilation of competent opinions and trustworthy forecasts and is strongly recommended.
Fighting IS
The rise of Islamic State (IS) has infused the international community with hope for US-Iran cooperation in combating the group. This paper examines Iranian objectives and influence in Iraq in light of ISIL's ascendance, and presents a thorough analysis of distinctive features of Iran's religious and military ties with Iraq.
Unexpected threat
With the agreement achieved the world seemed to obtain another regional power that could contribute to restoring stability in the Middle East. However, a seemingly unexpected diplomatic breakdown with Saudi Arabia spoiled the plans. What to expect in the near future of this rivalry between the two regional giants? To learn the answer we suggest you listen to ECFR's World in 30 minutes. An expert discussion with Marc Lynch from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a must to if you want to put together a jigsaw puzzle of the Middle East relations.
Partners forever?
Iran and Russia have long been considered partners backing each other in the face of challenges and claiming to have common goals and visions. This article by a Russian author at Chathman House presents the limitations of such partnership in the light of the Nuclear Deal and its international implications.
In conclusion

To draw a line, we offer you a recent report from the Center for strategic and International Studies dealing with positive sides, as well as risks of the Implementation Day for both internal and foreign dimensions of Iran's future. A solid contribution to the overall picture of the Iran Nuclear Deal that will clarify everything.
For those who prefer real quantitative science to sheer theorizing we offer this TED Video in which professor Bruce Bueno de Mosquita presents his method of predicting the future and applies it to Iran. Though this video might be a bit out-of-date, the method deserves attention of every political scientist and can be applied in new circumstances again.
RIAC selected publications
Anton Khlopkov
Iran's Nuclear Milestone
A few days ago, the world was witnessing history in the making, as the P5+1 and Iran managed to reach an historical agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme.
Prepared by: Viktoria Silaeva and Maria Gurova
Layout by Dmitriy Puminov.
© 2015 Russian International Affairs Council, russiancouncil.ru
Pics by: Reuters, IAEA/Dean Calma; Christiaan Triebert, mycatbirdseat.com, rosatom.ru